Future of Web 3.0
1 billion users by 2027
Although crypto users currently form only a small percentage of the global population, the rise of Web3 is expected to hasten adoption rates.
Crypto influencer Lark Davis tweeted a chart showing internet and crypto adoption rates. By superimposing the respective lines, taking into account when both started gaining traction, you can notice a very tight correlation.
If this trend holds, there could be 1 billion crypto users by 2026/27. That’s a 5x increase from current estimates of around 200 million crypto users.
As crypto relies on the internet, it’s reasonable to assume a substantial degree of positive correlation. But, as Web3 begins to take off, how might the rate of crypto adoption change?
Crypto adoption mirrors that of the internet
Back in early 2020, on-chain analyst Willy Woo commented that crypto adoption is comparable to that of the internet. In that, things start off slowly, but over time, crypto adoption will explode.
Woo said mass crypto adoption isn’t here yet, nor do the masses see it happening because human perception tends to process information linearly.
'Human nature is one that looks at things in a linear stance. So we’re not very good at looking at exponential growth, which is obviously what bitcoin is doing.'
Current estimates on the number of crypto users vary. While Davis puts the figure at 200 million, or about 2.5% of the global population, research conducted by blockchain solutions firm Triple-A puts the number of users at 300 million, or just under 4% of the worldwide population.
On the question of why mass crypto adoption isn’t here yet, Woo said that asking that is the equivalent of an internet user in 1994 asking why no one uses the internet. In other words, adoption is happening right now.
How might Web3 fit into this?
In a Medium post by VC firm Fabric Ventures, Web3 is described as the ability for users and machines to interact through peer-to-peer networks without the need for third parties.
'The result: a composable human-centric & privacy-preserving computing fabric for the next wave of the web.'
The term peer-to-peer is a big hint in terms of how cryptocurrency and blockchain technology fit into the picture.
If Web3 takes off, the logical outcome is that the internet and blockchain will become fully integrated with each other, thus potentially boosting crypto adoption exponentially to levels beyond even Woo’s expectations.
| Year (Internet Adoption) | Year (Crypto Adoption) | Users (High Correlation) |
|---|---|---|
1995 | 2020 | 70 million |
2005 | 2030 | 1 billion |
2022 | 2045 | 5 billion |
The current Bitcoin adoption rate is similar to that of the internet in 2005, meaning that today's early adopters are incredibly early –– by roughly 17 to 20 years.
By doing the math, the use of digital assets and Web3 could very well grow by a factor of 70x in the next 17 years to reach the current 5 billion internet users.
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